Taiwan Blog Feed

First, the good stuff. The island's own Jon Adams has a strong post in a FEER blog about the missiles that those statesmen in China point at the radical corporate lawyer Presidents in Taiwan. He writes:

Fortunately, such scenarios are extremely unlikely. In the next few years, it’s the missiles’ role as a bargaining chip that could be the most important.

Mr. Lin says Mr. Ma’s demand that China withdraw its missiles before peace talks can begin was just an opening negotiating position. The missile issue is not necessarily that big an obstacle, he said. “Ma had good reason to up the ante—you never start at a low point, you start as high as you can go,” said Mr. Lin. “I don’t think the high demand by Ma will be an obstacle to Beijing and Taipei talking.”

One key is that Mr. Ma is talking about “withdrawing” missiles, not dismantling them. As Taiwan’s defense minister has emphasized, the missiles are on mobile launch vehicles that can easily be moved. Even if they were rolled inland, they could be moved back in a crisis. A “withdrawal” would therefore be mostly symbolic, with China displaying a less aggressive military posture and winning public-relations points in the process.

Still, there’s another hurdle. Chu Shulong, of Beijing’s Tsinghua University, says he thinks Beijing will likely raise the issue of U.S. arms sales to the island if Mr. Ma pushes for a missile rollback. “The mainland side will link Ma’s demand for a withdrawal of missiles targeted at Taiwan to Taiwan's purchase of arms,” said Mr. Chu. Beijing could demand, for example, that Taiwan halt at least some arms purchases in return for a partial missile pullback.

Adams always does excellent work, and somehow manages to wade through all the political minefields in China-Taiwan relations without managing to blow himself up. Kudos to him for a very readable and informative piece, which shows how the "informality" of blogs is an asset in presenting complex information.

The Christian Science Monitor has a pretty good piece on the Taiwan-Tibet-China situation, that calls for concessions on China's part. As A-gu pointed out, Veep-elect Siew was greeted at the Boao Forum by the Vice-governor of Hainan Province -- someone of equal status, one vice-island-leader to another....although the sentiments are good, the editorial can't resist one last reference to Mad Chen:

The Dalai Lama seeks only full autonomy for his people within Chinese rule while the newly elected leaders of Taiwan are happy with the island's ambiguous status as de facto independent but still officially part of "one China" (someday). Taiwan's president-elect, Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party, plans closer economic ties with the mainland and, unlike outgoing President Chen Shui-bian, won't agitate Beijing with moves toward official independence.

Poor Beijing, tortured by the wholly evil and all-powerful Chen Shui-bian. Luckily Ma Ying-jeou has arrived to cure cancer, raise the dead, usher in a 1,000 year reign of peace on earth, and remove all the calories from dark chocolate. *sigh* I doubt any of these editors will ever realize how thoroughly they have been used by Beijing.... still, the article's heart is in the right place.

Lots of people sent me the opening paragraph to an article in the Wall Street Journal from Apr 15:

There's a welcome outbreak of pragmatism on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Saturday's meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Vice President-elect Vincent Siew of Taiwan was the highest-level session between officials of the two Chinas in almost 60 years. What happens next will be a test of Beijing's imagination.

It's funny to recall that Siew is not actually an official of the Republic of China; he's a private citizen at the moment. The reference to the Two Chinas, which many people described in terms not fit for a family blog, was not so much misguided as ominous. Folks, we are going to see a general rollback in the way Taiwan is portrayed -- all those struggles to get "Taiwan, Province of China" out of websites and so on are going to take a huge hit. References to "the Two Chinas" in WSJ are only the beginning of a long downhill slide. It goes without saying that the article does not mention the ongoing and behind-the-scenes talks between Beijing and the KMT that go back years. I wonder what it will take to get those mentioned in the international press?

Why were there US carriers deployed to the waters around Taiwan during the elections? Bill Geertz at the Washington Times informs us....

The American military officials said U.S. fears had been heightened shortly before the election, in which a pro-independence party's presidential candidate was defeated, because U.S. intelligence agencies determined that Chinese mobile short-range missile units within range of Taiwan had been moved to a heightened alert status.

The activity was interpreted as a signal that China might try to intimidate the Taiwan government and people with missile test firings, as occurred before their 1996 presidential election, or in the worst case, an actual attack. China has between 900 and 1,000 missiles deployed within range of the island that Beijing considers a breakaway province.

Scary eh? What was China up to? China was simply out to convince US officials that Mad Chen was for real:

Chinese officials described the Taiwan Strait situation as "increasingly dangerous" during one such military exchange in 2007, the report said.

"Chinese officials assessed as 'high,' the risk of an 'incident' occurring during the time between the March 2008 election and the May 2008 Taiwan presidential inauguration, and called on the United States to make more direct and open statements opposing the referendum [on United Nations membership] at higher levels than the United States has previously issued," the report said.

Yes, there really is a serious possibility that Chen Shui-bian, an unpopular lame duck president would foment a pro-independence incident when the military, legislature, the county magistrates, the bureaucracy, the police, the judiciary, the universities, and the media are all pro-KMT, and the island's most important ally, the US, hates him..... A Wag the Dog incident fomented by China -- that perhaps is a possibility.

Although there seems to be little commentary in the media that points out that China may well judge that Ma will not fight -- and may thus invade, looking for the easy win. Amid the dozens of articles this week on Ma's call for regular flights between China and Taiwan, and the move to make the Yuan a fully convertible currency, Ma the Destabilizer is one role no one has assigned to the world's most handsome leader yet.

Finally, in addition to media reports in today on the proposed free trade zone around the Taoyuan Airport (free trade zones around Taiwan ports of entry have long been a favorite panacea -- Cargo Cult style -- proposed by local legislators), Reuters reports on the visit of Chinese investment moguls to our fair island in search of investment opportunities....

According to the announcement, the group will visit Taipei and Kaohsiung, Taiwan's two largest cities, as well as other popular development areas. But a spokeswoman at Phoenix, which is also sending an affiliated real estate unit, said the itinerary had yet to be finalised.

Ma, who will take office on May 20, has said he favours opening up the commercial property market to mainland investors. He also wants to allow investment in housing as long as properties are held for at least five years to avoid speculation.

Although the outgoing administration of President Chen Shui-bian started to open up Taiwan's property market to mainland investors, it put up so many restrictions that most would-be investors stayed away.

Self-ruled Taiwan and China, which claims the island as its own, remain political rivals since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. But despite that rivalry, economic links between the pair have thrived, with China now Taiwan's biggest trading partner and favourite investment destination. Taiwan has become a popular investment ground in recent years for foreign real estate buyers who believe markets such as China and Hong Kong have become overpriced.

I'm curious to see how local property laws will have to evolve to accommodate the influx of foreign investment.....

BONUS: for those of you wanting to see Taiwan's dollar diplomacy in action, read this article from a St. Lucia paper on donations of Taiwan computers by the local Taiwan embassy that somehow morphed into donations from a particular local political party to area schools....

The Embassy confirmed that only the computers they have donated to government bore that particular sticker, as all other donations were monetary. In response to questions surrounding the reasons afforded by government in their request for the computers, the Taiwanese Ambassador said: "Once I send you the present I will not ask you if you are going to eat the cake or sell it to someone else."

[Taiwan]

In the run-up to the 2000 Taiwan election, the Washington Post featured a short piece by a reporter named John Pomfret, an interview with then-presidential candidate James Soong. Pomfret presented Soong, at that time a lifelong opponent of democracy, as a democratic reformer. I responded with a short letter protesting this mischaracterization of Soong's political career, which the Post duly printed.

Fast-forward to 2008, and Pomfret has established himself as a major Beijing correspondent. There is no question of his abilities or wisdom in interpreting China. Yet as his recent blog post in the Washington Post blog section shows, Pomfret is like almost every other Beijing correspondent when it comes to writing on Taiwan, displaying an unerring ability to reflect Beijing's propaganda themes rather than develop a rich and independent perspective on the island's politics. This problem will only worsen as Taiwan is re-subsumed into the idea of "China" as KMT-CCP links grow over time and the island's identity is smothered....

Pomfret's main idea is that Taiwan offers a democratic model that can change China, and that the meeting between Vice-president Elect Vincent Siew and China's leader, Hu Jin-tao, is A Really Good Thing. As he says:

This is good news, but not just for the economy of the region. It's also good news for those who care about the preservation of the world's only majority-Chinese democracy (Taiwan) and the prospect of political change in China.

Why? The reasons will be drearily familiar to readers who have come to know and love the media bogeyman Mad Chen^©, the Wrecker of Worlds. Pomfret's accusations are basically a run-down of Beijing/KMT talking points:

....So Chen resorted to a policy of what the Chinese liked to call "creeping independence" which basically meant seizing every opportunity to enrage Beijing....

...The keys to Taiwan's security and - critically - to the preservation of its full-throated democracy, [Ma] argued, are good relations with Beijing, not the constant tension Chen seemed to crave...

....means that after eight years of failed leadership by President Chen Shui-bian, who bungled the island's security and its economy....

We've beaten to death here Beijing's successful isolation of corporate lawyer and democracy supporter Chen as a "radical' for using referendums and democracy, while the media refrains from similar criticism of Beijing for its missile build-up and threats to plunge the region into war over Taiwan's democracy. I'll skip the economic lecture about the 'bungled' economy; readers will know what the more complex reality is.

This brings up the real question. Is the "warming" a good thing for Taiwan and for democratic prospects in China. Pomfret argues "yes." It almost makes a kind of sense, but that is only because everything important to assessing the answer to that question is missing from the Pomfret's discussion, as it generally is from media presentations on the Taiwan-China relationship.

Pomfret's presentation omits a number of key facts. For example, Pomfret never tells the reader that the KMT and Beijing have been coordinating policy to suppress the island's democratic development for the last few years. For example, after the most recent KMT Chairmanship election, the new Chairman, Wu Po-hsiung, immediately announced a visit to Beijing. Pomfret also leaves out Ma Ying-jeou's long career as a anti-democracy stalwart, and his ideological beliefs about China. Also missing are the chilling invocations of Singapore's one-party state as a model for Taiwan by a number of major KMT politicos, including future President Ma.

What happened in Hainan Island was a bit of political theatre aimed at the global media -- Vincent Siew was seated with the satraps of Hong Kong and Macao, a clear indicator there! The real negotiations are ongoing between the two parties behind the scenes, and have been for many years.

When representatives from two parties that share a pro-China ideology and despise democracy meet, the long-term prospects for democracy dim, not brighten. Neither the Chinese Nationalist Party in Taiwan nor the Chinese Communist Party in China has any interest in deepening or broadening democratic development in Taiwan. On the contrary, both have powerful vested interests in a hollowing out of democracy on Taiwan. If Taiwan's democracy really does have the potential to effect positive political change in China, you can be sure that it will be a priority of Beijing's leaders have that democracy neutered.

What does that suggest? The sad fact is that as long as the KMT is running Taiwan, China is far more likely to change Taiwan than Taiwan is to change China.

[Taiwan]

The conventional wisdom is accurately portrayed by Keith Bradsher of the NYTimes in an article on Vice-President Elect Siew's meeting with China's bigwigs at the recent Boao forum in China...

Mr. Siew and President-elect Ma Ying-jeou will take office in Taipei on May 20 with a strong electoral mandate to reduce the hostility that has existed with Beijing for most of the past six decades. But Taiwan’s leaders and officials on the mainland each face strong domestic pressures not to make too many concessions too quickly or too easily.

Those domestic pressures are likely to limit their room to maneuver and force them to pursue limited agendas at first, focused on issues like tourism and charter flights, political analysts said.

Ma wants talks rapidly after he takes office on May 20. Because of the massive pressure on Ma from investors who expect to make big $$ when Chinese money floods in -- if it floods in -- and the expectations of locals -- Ma must make a deal.

Thus, I think the "constraints" argument is weak, especially by comparison with the pressures on Ma. Ma's KMT controls the military, the judiciary, the police, the bureaucracy, most major businesses, etc. Where is the constraint on Ma? The threat of street demonstrations? I think that he can buy off most objections simply by making the money flow; if promises of cash can get him elected.... and let's not forget, the real dealing is going on in the negotiations between the KMT and Beijing that no one is writing about....

There was a minor flap about Siew using the "Tai Bao Zhen" -- the document issued to Taiwanese who travel in China. Bruce Jacobs, the well known Taiwan scholar, said that Siew's was not actually stamped, a concession by Chinese authorities. Siew was criticized by the pro-Taiwan types for selling out.....

AP writes of the meeting, looking at the economic aspects:

[Ma's]His goals for Taiwan include 6 percent annual economic growth, a jobless rate no higher than 3 percent, and per capita income doubling in eight years to $30,000. The economy grew 5.7 percent last year, though the average for Chen's eight-year presidency will probably be less than 4.5 percent.

The core of Ma's economic program involves public and private investments in a number of long-term infrastructural and industrial projects - investments that could well push Taiwan's budget deficit farther into the red.

At the forum, Siew invited the cash-rich Chinese to invest in some of the projects. Taiwanese officials said they expressed some initial interest.

Ma has also promised to bolster Taiwan's flagging tourism industry - an area that could generate immediate revenues, if Beijing agrees to a large-scale tourist outflow. According to Ma's plan, 1 million Chinese would visit Taiwan each year, generating $1 billion in revenues.

"Taiwan's high-tech and other exports could suffer a decline amid the global economic slowdown, but the drop would be partially offset by tourism," said Norman Yin, an economist with Taiwan's National Chengchi University.

Chinese tourism needs better air service to flourish, and the extension of existing holiday charter service to weekends - endorsed by Hu - seems a good step in that direction. Ma has also promised to push for the launching of regular commercial flights, though he does not believe they can start before the second half of next

Here's one use for Chinese money above -- getting it to invest in projects in infrastructure projects in Taiwan.

It's interesting how Taiwan's tourism industry is "flagging." Where do these writers get this crap? Is there no Google in the AP offices? The China Post recently reported:

In 2008, the number of tourist arrivals, as of yesterday [5 Apr], posted an annual growth of 14.29%, twice the target growth of 7 percent.

Of the inbound tourists so far this year, those from South Korea recorded the highest annual increase of 42%, followed by a 35% gain for those from Hong Kong and Macao, and a 27% surge for tourists from Malaysia.

Given the sharp growth, the number of inbound tourists is expected to not only exceed the historical high of 3.72 million recorded in 2007, but also break the 4 million mark to hit a new high this year, according to the Tourism Bureau.

In other words, our tourism hit a historical high last year and is booming this year. But according to AP, it is "flagging."

[Taiwan]

The Lafayette case, the kickback scandal involving France, China, and the KMT, is a still limping along. Last year it surfaced briefly when the Swiss returned some money to Taiwan. Now the day before President-elect Ma Ying-jeou is sworn in, the district court plans to call as witnesses reactionary right-wing heavyweight politician Hau Pei-tsun, father of the current Taipei mayor, and former President Lee Teng-hui in a related case, along with 20 other former officials. Hau was hauled in for questioning before and more or less blamed Lee. Of that, I wrote earlier:

Back in 1989-91, when the procurement decision was being made, newly-minted President Lee Teng-hui and longtime KMT stalwart Hau were struggling over just who controlled the military. Hau's reference thus is imbued with surpassing irony: Lee could not have made the decision, because in the period 1989-1990 he did not control the military; Hau did. In fact, in January of 1988, when Chiang Ching-kuo died and Lee ascended to the Presidency, a hardline faction of mainlander officers threatened a coup. The intervention of James Soong, who mediated the crisis, enabled Lee to retain power. The early years of Lee's presidency were thus overshadowed by the conflict between Hau, point man for this faction (the "non-mainstream faction"), and Lee representing the Party Machine and the mainstream KMT factions, over the direction of the KMT, and the shape of the government. Lee moved Hau out of his position as Chief of the General Staff, into the post of Minister of Defense, and finally to the position of Premier in May of 1990. Hau was appointed to that position because of the continuing threat of hardliners who wanted to run Hau as an alternative Presidential candidate in the March 1990 election, and because the previous premier, Lee Huan, had sided with the hardline mainlanders against Lee Teng-hui (he was a close associate of Chiang Ching-kuo). In fact Hau would eventually run as the Veep on an alternative ticket with Lin Yang-kang in 1996.

I have two reviews of the case, a short one here and a very long one here. Note that it was the visit of current VP-elect Vincent Siew to France in 1990 that apparently sparked the sale and the subsequent scandal. Siew has also been questioned in the case, as he was Minister of Finance at the time. Ma Ying-jeou called for a halt to the questioning when he was Chairman of the KMT.
The timing of the court date is interesting, and some have speculated that anything that comes out might overshadow Ma's big day the next day. Highly unlikely. Hau has already been questioned to no avail, and Lee Teng-hui, following his post-presidency wish to play power behind the throne for somebody, anybody, is giving advice to Ma. He isn't likely to embarrass the new regime either. If anything does come out, it is more likely that Ma's swearing-in will overshadow it, which may explain why it was scheduled for that day in the first place.

The Swiss admitted this week that the amount of money they hold in the case is double what was previously admitted.

Swiss authorities said Thursday that $900 million (?572 million) belonging to Taiwanese citizens remained frozen in Swiss bank accounts linked to the alleged corrupt sale of six French frigates to Taiwan in the 1990s.

In 2006 I noted:

In 1990 and 1991 Lee and Hau were still struggling for control of the government. Hau, the premier, and a conservative mainlander, argued that Taiwan had a parliamentary system in which the Premier should hold the power, while Lee pushed for a Presidential system that would concentrate power in the Chief Executive. Lee shoved through six constitutional amendments during the 1990s, and every one increased the power of the President. At that time too Hau had just come from being head of the military, the former chief of staff, and had enormous influence over military affairs. Lee had him moved from that post to the Minister of Defense, to decrease his power. It seems unlikely that if Hau was in charge of the purchase, Lee Teng-hui got anything out of the deal. The DPP has publicly claimed this, and a Control Yuan investigation also backed Lee and demanded that Hau be impeached -- though several impeached officers claimed Lee knew (Lee was also implicated in a similar kickback scandal over the Mirage Fighter purchase in the 1990s, though that decision also occurred before he gained influence over the military). Perhaps the current legislative freezing of the Control Yuan is an attempt by the Blues to stop the Lafayette investigation, since it touches on so many major mainlander political figures, most importantly Hau and Soong. Other military figures, mostly mainlanders, were impeached over the scandal.

Almost all the alleged beneficiaries and alleged participants are still in the government and other positions of authority, formal and informal. Those who are wont to claim the KMT has changed, should take note....

[Taiwan] [China] [France] [KMT]

Out in Oklahoma, an opinion piece comments on the election in 'the Asian nation most like our own.'

In a recent interview, Joseph Wu, director of Taiwan's Washington office, told me popular support for the murkily defined status quo in PRC relations exceeds 80 percent.

Americans must be attentive to Taiwan's needs, and here's why. Taiwan is the world's leading per capita consumer of American agricultural products. As Wu said, Taiwan has "been a consistent supporter of the U.S. in security concerns. ... Taiwan is the number three supporter of construction, reconstruction and aid in Afghanistan. In container security we are the best U.S. ally."

AP reports that vice-president elect Vincent Siew will meet with Chinese leaders and perhaps Hu himself at an upcoming forum:

Vincent Siew will not discuss any sensitive political issues if he meets Chinese President Hu Jintao at the three-day Boao Forum, which opens Saturday in Hainan province, his spokesman Wang Yu-chi said.

"Mr. Siew will meet some officials there, but a meeting with Hu has yet to be confirmed," Wang said.

But Taiwan's United Daily News quoted unidentified Chinese officials as saying authorities had agreed to the meeting so Hu could use the occasion to discuss matters of common interest with Taiwan's incoming government.

Although this article still offers the "China and Taiwan split in 1949" nonsense, it does contain one statement that is absolutely wonderful:

Beijing refused to deal with outgoing President Chen Shui-bian for the past eight years because he rejected China's insistence on unification with Taiwan.

Not many statements on affairs here are so absolutely clear. Note also the use of the term "unification" and not the historically erroneous "RE-unification." Tom Plate, who has an opinion piece on the election in the Japan Times, totally misses this in an abusive and unconsidered set of comments:

With this stunning result, you could almost hear a collective sign of relief sweep across Asia. The triumphant KMT was led by the debonair Ma Ying-jeou. For months he had been expected to win the presidential race. But the resurgent troubles in Tibet had forecasters wondering whether the party that was so committed to negotiation with Beijing would be able to maintain plausibility with Taiwan voters when the world's TV cameras were suggesting that Beijing didn't seem to be in favor of negotiating with anyone right now.

Taiwan answered the clubs of Tibet with votes for change — for dramatic movement away from confrontation. With the thundering certainty that only a decisive ballot box result can offer, the vote heard around Asia was a call for sanity, civility and stability.

..."the party that was so committed to negotiation with Beijing." The DPP was also committed to negotiation with Beijing -- it is just that as AP correctly notes, and Plate ignores, Beijing blew off the DPP completely. Oh yeah, history, wonderful stuff. It is one thing to note that the KMT and certain pro-KMT observers in the US cast the election as "a call for sanity, civility, and stability" but it is quite another to reproduce KMT talking points as analysis. Pathetic. Plate's commentary also shows how Ma himself benefits from a nifty little foreign media personality cult, whose latest manifestation is here: Ma is debonair. Supporting democracy is, well, you know, just so working class......

[Taiwan]

The 2008 election season in Taiwan came to an unsurprising conclusion on March 22nd with a resounding win to the KMT (中國國民黨) candidates Ma Ying jeou (馬英九) and running mate Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), ending eight years of DPP rule. Ma and Siew, whose winning margin was 17%, will take office on May 20th, 2008. There’s more than enough commentary and analysis of the election on various media sites and blogs, so I’ll just show you a few pictures from the post-election party in Taipei.

All photos ©Craig Ferguson Images. Photos taken by Craig Ferguson and Selina Tseng.